Economic Growth from a Kaldorian Perspective: Theory, Evidence and Agenda
Resumo
This paper presents a literature review of the Kaldorian literature, which identifies three important gaps, or areas for future research. Firstly, the determinants of the magnitude of the key parameters of Kaldor-Verdoorn’s Law (the Verdoorn coefficient) and of Thirlwall’s Law (the income elasticities) have not been fully understood. Secondly, the fact that cumulative causation works through price competitiveness in the Kaldor-Dixon-Thirlwall model represents an important limitation of the model, which has not yet been solved. Thirdly, sectoral differences have not been fully explored in Kaldorian theory. The review indicates that, in the first two research areas, exploring the effects of additional variables could help clarify what determines the magnitudes of the parameters, as have been sought by the works that combine Kaldorian and Schumpeterian insights, indicating also new channels through which cumulative causation could work. Finally, the last issue requires more attention to similarities and differences between manufacturing sectors, as well as exploring more carefully how sectoral dynamics work.Downloads
Referências
Alexiadis, S.; Tsagdis, D. (2010), “Is cumulative growth in manufacturing productivity slowing down in the EU12 regions?”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34, p. 1001-1017.
Alonso, J. A.; Garcimartín, C. (1998), “A New Approach to Balance-of-Payments Constraint: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21(2), p. 259-82.
Aghion, P.; Howitt, P. (1992), “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction, Econometrica, 60(2), p. 323-351.
Amable, B. (1993), “Catch-up and convergence: a model of cumulative causation”, International Review of Applied Economics, 7(1), p. 1-25.
Andersen, P. S. (1993), “The 45-rule revisited”, Applied Economics, 25, p. 1279-1284.
Angeriz, A.; McCombie, J. S.; Roberts, M. (2008), “New Estimates of Returns to Scale and Spatial Spillovers for EU Regional Manufacturing, 1986-2002”, International Regional Science Review, 31(1), p. 62-87.
Angeriz, A.; McCombie, J. S.; Roberts, M. (2009), “Increasing Returns and the Growth of Industries in the EU Regions: Paradoxes and Conundrums”, Spatial Economic Analysis, 4(2), p. 127-48.
Araújo, R.; Lima, G. T. (2007), “A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31(5), p. 755-74.
Ansari, M.; Hashemzadeh, N.; Xi, Y. (2000), “The Chronicle of Economic Growth in Southeast Asian Countries: Does Thirlwall’s Law Provide an Adequate Explanation?”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 22(4), p. 573-588.
Atesoglu, H. S. (1993a), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Grwoth: Evidence from the United States”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15(4), p. 507-14.
Atesoglu, H. S. (1993b), “Exports, Capital Flows, Relative Prices and Economic Growth in Canada”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 16(2), p. 289-97.
Atesoglu, H. S. (1994), “An application of a Kaldorian export-led model of growth to the United States”, Applied Economics, 26, p. 479-483.
Bairam, E. (1988), “Balance of payments, the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970-85”, Applied Economics, 20, p. 1635-42.
Bairam, E.; Dempster, G. J. (1991), “The Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth in Asian countries”, Applied Economics, 23, p. 1719-24.
Barbosa-Filho, N. H. (2001), “The balance-of-payments constraint: from balanced trade to sustainable debt”, BNL Quarterly Review, 54, p. 381-400.
Bernat, G. A. (1996), “Does Manufacturing Matter? A Spatial Econometricl View of Kaldor’s Laws”, Journal of Regional Science, 36, p. 463-77.
Blecker, R. (2013), “Long-run growth in open economies: export-led cumulative causation or balance-of-payments constraint?”, in Harcourt, G. C.; Kriesler, P. (eds) Oxford Handbook of Post Keynesian Economics (4 vols.). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Britto, G.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2009), “Thirlwall’s law and the long-term equilibrium growth rate: an application to Brazil”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(1), p. 115-136.
Britto, G.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2015), “Increasing returns to scale and regions: a multilevel model for Brazil”, Brazilian Keynesian Review, 1(2), p. 118-34.
Dixon, R.; Thirwall, A. P. (1975), “A Model of Regional Growth-rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers, 27(2), p. 201-214.
Fagerberg, J. (2005), “Innovation: a guide to the literature”, in Fagerebrg, J.; Mowery, D.; Nelson, R. (Eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Innovation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Felipe, J.; Hasan, R.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2008), “Correcting for biases when estimating production functions: an illusion of the laws of algebra?”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32, p. 441-459.
Fingleton, B.; McCombie, J. S. L. (1998), “Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence from Manufacturing from the European Union Regions”, Oxford Economic Papers, 50, p. 89-105.
Garcimartín, C.; Rivas, L. A.; Martínez, P. G. (2010), “On the role of relative prices and capital flows in balance-of-payments constrained growth: the experiences of Portugal and Spain in the euro area”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(2), p. 281-305.
Gouvêa, R. R.; Lima, G. T. (2010), “Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall’s Law”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(1), p. 169-204.
Gouvêa, R. R.; Lima, G. T. (2013), “Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation”, Journal of Economic Studies, 40(2), p. 240-254.
Grossman, G. M.; Helpman, E. (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge MA: MIT Press.
Hansen, J. D.; Zhang, J. (1996), “A Kaldorian Approach to Regional Economic Growth in China”, Applied Economics, 28, p. 679-85.
Harris, R. I. D.; Liu, A. (1999), “Verdoorn’s Law and Increasing Returns to Scale: Country Estimates Based on the Cointegration Approach”, Applied Economics Letters, 6, p. 29-33.
Harrod, R. F. (1933), International Economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Heike, H. (1997), “Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: A Reconsideration of the Evidence for the US Economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), p. 313-325.
Hicks, J. R. (1950), A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Houthakker, H. S.; Magee, S. P. (1969), “Income and price elasticities in world trade”, Review of Economic and Statistics, 51(2), p. 111-125.
Kaldor, N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth”, Economic Journal, 67, p. 591-624.
Kaldor, N. (1966), Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom: an Inaugural Lecture. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kaldor, N. (1970), “The Case for Regional Policies”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17, p. 337-48.
Keynes, J. M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
Kleinknecht, A.; Verspagen, B. (1990), “Demand and Innovation: Schmookler re-examined”, Research Policy, 19, p. 387-394.
León-Ledesma, M. A. (1999), “Verdoorn’s Law and increasing returns: an empirical analysis of the Spanish regions”, Applied Economics Letters, 6, p. 373-6.
León-Ledesma, M. A. (2000), “Economic Growth and Verdoorn’s Law in the Spanish Regions, 1962-91”, International Review of Applied Economics, 14(1), p. 55-69.
León-Ledesma, M. A. (2002), “Accumulation, innovation and catching-up: an extender cumulative growth model”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26, p. 201-216.
McCombie, J. S. L. (1982), “Economic Growth, Kaldor’s Laws and the Static-Dynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox”, Applied Economics, 14, p. 279-94.
McCombie, J. S. L. (1983), “Kaldor’s laws in retrospect”, Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, 5(3), p. 414-429.
McCombie, J. S. L. (1985), “Economic growth, the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and the Hicks’ super-multiplier”, Applied Economics, 17, p. 55-72.
McCombie, J. S. L. (1997), “On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), p. 345-375.
McCombie, J. S. L. (2002), “Increasing Returns and the Verdoorn Law from a Kaldorian Perspective”, in McCombie, J. S. L.; Pugno, M.; Soro, B. (Eds.) Productivity Growth and Economic Performance: Essays on Verdoorn’s Law. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
McCombie, J. S. L. (2011), “Criticisms and defences of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: some old, some new”, PSL Quarterly Review, 64(259), p. 353-392.
McCombie, J. S. L.; De Ridder, J. R. (1983), “Increasing returns, productivity, and output growth: the case of the United States”, Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, 5(3), p. 373-387.
McCombie, J. S. L.; De Ridder, J. R. (1984), “The Verdoorn Law Controversy: Some New Empirical Evidence Using U.S. State Data”, Oxford Economic Papers, 36(2), p. 268-284.
McCombie, J. S. L.; Roberts, M. (2007), “Returns to Scale and Regional Growth: The Static-Dynamic Verdoorn Law Paradox Revisited”, Journal of Regional Science, 47(2), p. 179-208.
McCombie, J. S. L.; Thirlwall, A. (1994), Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint. London: Macmillan Press Ltd..
McCombie, J. S. L.; Thirlwall, A. (1997), “Economic Growth and the balance-of-payments constraint revisited”, in Arestis, P.; Palma, G.; Sawyer, M. (Eds.), Markets, unemployment and economic policy: essays in honour of Geoff Harcourt. London: Routhledge.
McCombie, J. S. L.; Spreafico, M. (2016), “Kaldor’s ‘Technical Progress Function’ and the Verdoorn Law Revisited”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
Missio, F. J.; Jayme Jr., F. G.; Britto, G.; Oreiro, J. L. (2015), “Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence”, Metroeconomica, 66, p. 686-714.
Moreno-Brid, J. C. (2003), “Capital flows, interest payments and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: a theoretical and empirical analysis”, Metroeconomica, 54(2), p.346-65.
Myrdal, G. (1957), Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. London: Duckworth.
Oliveira, F. H. P.; Jayme Jr., F. G.; Lemos, M. B. (2006), “Increasing returns to scale and international diffusion of technology: An empirical study for Brazil (1976-2000)”, World Development, 34(1), p. 75-88.
Oreiro, J. L.; Missio, F. J.; Jayme Jr., F. G. (2015), “Capital Accumulation, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist Growth Model”, Panoeconomicus, 62, p. 237-256.
Perraton, J. (2003), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: an examination of Thirlwall’s hypothesis”, International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), p. 1-22.
Pieper, U. (2003), “Sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries – a Kaldorian interpretation”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 27, p. 831-850.
Rapetti, M.; Skott, P.; Razmi, A. (2012), “The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?”, 29(4), p. 267-79.
Roberts, M. (2002), “Cumulative Causation and Unemployment”, in
McCombie, J. S.; Pugno, M.; Soro, B. (Eds.), Productivity Growth and Economic Performance: Essays on Verdoorn’s Law. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Rodrik, D. (2008), “The real exchange rate and economic growth”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 39(2), p. 365-439.
Romer, P. (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), p. S71-S102.
Romero, J. P. (2015), “Increasing Returns To Scale, Technological Catch-up And Research Intensity: An Industry-level Investigation Combining EU KLEMS Productivity Data With Patent Data”, in: Anais do 43o Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC. Florianopolis: Brazil.
Romero, J. P.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2016a), “Differences in Increasing Returns Between Technological Sectors: A Panel Data Investigation Using the EU KLEMS Database”, Journal of Economic Studies, forthcoming.
Romero, J. P.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2016b), “The Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall’s Law: evidence from 14 developed European countries using product-level data”, International Review of Applied Economics, 30(3), p. 301-25.
Romero. J. P.; Silveira, F.; Jayme Jr., F. G. (2011), “Brazil: structural change and balance-of-payments-constrained growth”, CEPAL Review, 105, p. 185-208.
Rowthorn, R. E. (1975), “What Remains of Kaldor’s Law?”, Economic Journal, 85(337), p. 10-19.
Setterfield, M. (1997), “‘History versus equilibrium’ and theory of economic growth”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 21, p. 365-378.
Setterfield, M. (2011), “The remarkable durability of Thirlwall’s Law”, PSL Quarterly Review, 64(259), p. 393-427.
Smith, A. (1776 [1973]), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Harmondsworth: Penguin Book.
Schmookler, J. (1966), Invention and Economic Growth. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.
Targetti, F.; Foti, A. (1997), “Growth and productivity: a model of cumulative growth and catching up”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 21, p. 27-43.
Tharnpanich, N.; McCombie, J. S. L. (2013), “Balance-of-payments constrained growth, structural change, and the Thai economy”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(4), p. 569-97.
Thirlwall, A. (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, BNL Quarterly Review, 128(791), p. 45-53.
Thirlwall, A. (1983), “A Plain Man’s Guide to Kaldor’s Growth Laws”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 5(3), p. 345-358.
Thirlwall, A.; Hussain, M. N. (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, 34(3), p. 498-510.
Verdoorn, P. J. (1949), “Fattori che regolano lo sviluppo della produttività del lavoro”, L’Industria, 1, p. 3-10.
- Autores mantém os direitos autorais e concedem à revista o direito de primeira publicação, com o trabalho simultaneamente licenciado sob a Licença Creative Commons Attribution que permite o compartilhamento do trabalho com reconhecimento da autoria e publicação inicial nesta revista.
- Autores têm autorização para assumir contratos adicionais separadamente, para distribuição não-exclusiva da versão do trabalho publicada nesta revista (ex.: publicar em repositório institucional ou como capítulo de livro), com reconhecimento de autoria e publicação inicial nesta revista.
- Autores têm permissão e são estimulados a publicar e distribuir seu trabalho online (ex.: em repositórios institucionais ou na sua página pessoal) a qualquer ponto antes ou durante o processo editorial, já que isso pode gerar alterações produtivas, bem como aumentar o impacto e a citação do trabalho publicado (Veja O Efeito do Acesso Livre).
