The GIIPS crisis in the context of the European Monetary Union: a political economy approach

Nicholas Magnus Deleuse Blikstad; Giuliano Contento de Oliveira

doi:10.33834/bkr.v4i2.140

Nicholas Magnus Deleuse Blikstad University of Campinas (UNICAMP) http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8316-6978
Giuliano Contento de Oliveira University of Campinas

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v4i2.140

Palavras-chave: Crises dos GIIPS, União Monetária Europeia, Novo Consenso Macroeconômico

Resumo

The GIIPS crisis (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) has been deep and resistant. To date there have not been clear signs of consistent recovery from these economies, with the only exception being Ireland, that has experimented with a longer lasting economic recovery process in recent times. The aim of this paper is to discuss the GIIPS crisis in light of the European integration project. It is argued that this crisis has resulted from two simultaneous processes: on the one hand, it has resulted from the growing internal imbalances that occurred over the economic expansion period; on the other hand, it has resulted from the rigidities imposed by the institutional arrangement of the European Monetary Union. It has been concluded that the consistent economic recovery of these economies requires an aggregate demand stimulus for them, a condition that in turn requires the implementation of countercyclical economic policies.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Nicholas Magnus Deleuse Blikstad, University of Campinas (UNICAMP)

PhD Student in Economics

Giuliano Contento de Oliveira, University of Campinas

Prof. Dr. in Economics in University of Campinas

Referências

Aglietta, M. (2013). Zona do Euro: Qual o Futuro? São Paulo: Editora Ideias & Letras.

Alesina, A., Barro, R., & Tenreyro, S. (2002). Optimum Currency Areas (NBER Working Papers No. 9072).

Amado, A. M., & Mollo, M. de L. R. (2011). Ortodoxia e heterodoxia na discussão sobre integração regional: a origem do pensamento da CEPAL e seus desenvolvimentos posteriores. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 34(1), 129–156. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0101-41612004000100005

Arestis, P. (2007). What is the New Consensus in Macroeconomics? In P. Arestis (Ed.), Is There a New Consensus in Macroeconomics? (pp. 22–42). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Arestis, P., & Sawyer, M. (2011). The Design Faults of the Economic and Monetary Union. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 19(1), 21–32.

Arestis, P., McCauley, K., & Sawyer, M. C. (1999). From Common Market to Emu: A Historical Perspective of European Economic and Monetary Integration. Ssrn. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.156554

Athanassiou, E. (2012). Household debt and domestic demand: Greece versus other Euro Zone economics. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10), 157–166.

Bakker, A. (1996). The liberalization of capital movements in Europe: the Monetary Committee and financial integration, 1958-1994. Amsterdam: Free University. Retrieved from http://books.google.ca/books?id=zEGxAAAAIAAJ

Belluzzo, L. (2013). Prefacio. In A. Martins & M. Cintra (Eds.), As Transformacções no Sistema Monetario Internacional (pp. 9–18). Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica.

Bernanke, B. S., & Mishkin, F. S. (2011). Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(2), 97–116. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.11.2.97

Bibow, J. (2012). The Euro Debt Crisis and Germany’s Euro Trilemma (Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection No. 721). Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection.

Bibow, J. (2013). Germany and the Euroland Crisis: The Making of a Vulnerable Haven. Ssrn. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2285612

Bresser-Pereira, L. C., & Rossi, P. (2015). Sovereignty, the exchange rate, collective deceit, and the euro crisis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 38(3), 355–375. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2015.1087807

Corden, W. (1972). International Trade Theory and Policy. England: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.

De Grauwe, P. (2010). The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone. Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings (Vol. 21).

De Grauwe, P., & Mongelli, F. P. (2005). Endogeneities of optimum currency areas - what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together? ECB Working Paper Series. Retrieved from http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp468.pdf%5Cnhttp://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0820541&site=ehost-live

Delors Committee. (1989). Report on Economic and Monetary Union in the European Community. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.

Dullien, S. (2010). Integração Produtiva na União Europeia: Uma Perspectiva Alemã. In R. Alvarez, M. Wohlers, & R. Baumann (Eds.), Integracão Produtiva: Caminhos para o Mercosul (pp. 156–219). Brasilia: Agência Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial.

Eichengreen, B. (2000). A Globalização do Capital. São Paulo: Editora 34.

Eichengreen, B. (2007). The European Economy Since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.

European Commission (1990) “One Market, One Money: an Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union” European Economy, n. 44, 341p.

European Statistical System (Eurostat) (2017) Database. Brussels: European Commission.

Fitzgerald, J. (2014). Ireland’s recovery from crisis. CESifo Forum, 15(2), 8–13.

Flassbeck, H., & Lapavitsas, C. (2013). The Systemic Crisis of the Euro - True Causes and Effective Therapies. Berlin: Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung.

Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1997). Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante? European Economic Review, 41(3–5), 753–760. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00034-2

Emerson, M., Gros, D., & Italianer, A. (1992). One Market, One Money: An Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union. Oxford University Press.

European Commission (1990). One Market, One Money: an Evaluation of the Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union. (European Economy, n. 44). Dictorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the Commission of European Communities.

Goodfriend, M., & King, R. (1997). The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy. In B. Bernanke & J. Rotemberg (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual (pp. 231–296). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Guttmann, R., & Plihon, D. (2010). Consumer debt and financial fragility. International Review of Applied Economics, 24(3), 269–283. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171003701420

Hein, E. (2012). The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis. Northampton: Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781009161

Helleiner, E. (1994). States and the Reemergence of Global Finance: from Bretton Woods to the 1990’s. Ithaca and London: Cornwell University Press.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2017) World Economic Outlook Database. Washington, DC: IMF.

Ishiyama, Y. (1975). The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: a Survey (IMF Staff Papers No. 22).

Issing, O., Angeloni, I., Gaspar, V., & Tristani, O. (2004). Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Strategy and Decision Making at the European Central Bank. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Judt, T. (2017). Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945. New York: Penguin Press. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781912281541

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace.

Kydland, F. E., & Prescott, E. C. (1977). Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473–491. https://doi.org/10.1086/260580

Minsky, H. (1982). Can “It’’’ Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance.” New York: M. E. Sharpe.

Minsky, H. (1986). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Miranda, J. (2014). Três Ensaios sobre a Integração Europeia. In A. Biancarelli, A. Calixtre, & M. Cintra (Eds.), Presente e Futuro do Desenvolvimento Brasileiro (pp. 543–594). Brasilia: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada.

OECD (2016). OECD Factbook 2015-2016: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics. Paris: OECD Publishing.

Oliveira, G., & Wolf, P. (2017). The Euro and the Recent European Crisis vis-à-vis the Gold Standard and the Great Depression: Institutionalities, Specificities and Interfaces. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 37(1), 147–166.

Oliveira, G., Deos, S., & Wolf, P. (2012). A Crise Europeia e os Limites do Ajuste Deflacionario. In D. Modenesi, D. Prates, J. Oreiro, L. F. Paula, & M. Resende (Eds.), Sistema Financeiro e Política Econômica em uma Era de Instabilidade (pp. 30–42). Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.

Oliveira, G., Deos, S., & Wolf, P. (2014). Integração Regional e Convergência Econômica Real: Lições da Experiência Europeia. Analise Econômica, 32(61), 7–40.

Priewe, J. (2012). European Imbalances and the Crisis of the European Monetary Union. In From Crisis to Growth? - Conference of Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM). Berlin.

Robson, P. (1998). The Economics of International Integration (4th ed.). London: New Fetter Lane.

Schauble, W. (2011, September 5). Why austerity is the Only Cure for the Eurozone. Financial Times, September.

Scheller, H. (2006). O Banco Central Europeu - História, Papel e Funções. Frankfurt: Banco Central Europeu.

Tavlas, G. S. (1993). The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. World Economy, 16(6), 663–685. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.1993.tb00189.x

Toporowski, J. (2013). International credit, financial integration and the euro. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(3), 571–584. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bet008

Werner Report (1970). Report to the Council and the Commission on the Realization by Stages of Economic and Monetary Union in the Community. Luxembourg: Commission of the European Communities.