Infraestrutura e elasticidades de comércio exterior: evidências empíricas para China
Resumo
Este artigo investiga o efeito da infraestrutura sobre as elasticidades-renda de exportações e importações para economia chinesa, no período 1981-2016, empregando a técnica de ponderação bayesiana de modelos (BMA). Os resultados sugerem que uma melhor infraestrutura promove aumento da elasticidade-renda de exportações e queda da elasticidade-renda de importações. As variáveis de controle – taxa de câmbio, capital humano, consumo do governo e qualidade institucional – aumentam as elasticidade-renda de exportações, mas possuem resultados mistos, com relação as elasticidade-renda de importações. As elasticidades-renda foram estimadas aplicando o filtro de Kalman, o qual permite obter uma estimativa variável no tempo da taxa de crescimento de equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos. Por fim, os resultados apontam que, a infraestrutura possui um impacto positivo e significativo de longo prazo sobre a razão das elasticidades de comércio exterior da economia chinesa.
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