Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil

Rafaela Maiara Caetano; Cleomar Gomes da Silva

doi:10.33834/bkr.v5i1.165

Rafaela Maiara Caetano Universidade Federal de Lavras
Cleomar Gomes da Silva Universidade Federal de Uberlândia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33834/bkr.v5i1.165

Palavras-chave: Confiança do Consumidor, Política Monetária, ARDL

Resumo

O objetivo deste artigo é investigar os determinantes da confiança do consumidor e impactos na dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil. A metodologia econométrica aplicada envolve modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagem Distribuída (ARDL) aliados à abordagem de cointegração. Para dados entre janeiro de 2003 e dezembro de 2016, os resultados sugerem a existência de uma relação de longo prazo entre o índice de confiança do consumidor e as demais variáveis analisadas. Em relação à dinâmica de curto prazo, o mecanismo de correção de erros varia entre 1,9% e 8,7%, a depender do modelo estimado. Isto sugere que variáveis econômicas influenciam a confiança do consumidor e, quando esta confiança é posta em xeque, ela se recupera de forma lenta.

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Biografia do Autor

Rafaela Maiara Caetano, Universidade Federal de Lavras

Possui graduação em Ciências Econômicas pela Universidade Federal de São João del Rei (UFSJ)

Mestre em Economia Aplicada pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)

Doutoranda em Administração no Departamento de Administração e Economia pela Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)

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