Dynamics of global liquidity cycles in the years 2000-2019: a proposition based on calculated indicator and conjuncture analysis
Abstract
From the perspective that markets are not perfectly efficient in allocating resources, there is no reason to expect that the total openness and financial integration of economies will deliver the greatest economic growth. Oppositely, these movements can increase the degree of vulnerability of peripheral countries to external events. The present work highlights the financial external vulnerability linked to the currency hierarchy. In the same way, international capital flows are central vectors for the realization of this vulnerability, behaving in a coordinated manner, mainly linked to the global liquidity cycles. Thus, the objective of this paper is to add elements to the understanding of the periodicity of global liquidity in the 2000s, through the calculation of an indicator – related to capital flows to peripheral countries – and historical analysis of the period portrayed, examining the international conjuncture and some works related to it, such as the IMF and UNCTAD reports.
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