Modelos de crescimento, regimes Kaldorianos e a Lei de Thirlwall: ajustes e equações de fechamento
Abstract
Nos modelos de crescimento de corte Kaldoriano, tem-se uma distinção central entre o regime de produtividade (lado da oferta) e o regime de demanda. Estes regimes interagem por meio das taxas de crescimento efetiva (yE) e natural (yN). Um equilíbrio estável requer que essas taxas convirjam. Uma abordagem central da teoria Keynesiana enfatiza o papel da restrição do balanço de pagamentos (modelo de Thirlwall) como determinante da taxa de crescimento de equilíbrio no longo prazo (yBP). Expandimos o modelo Kaldoriano estruturado por Setterfield (2010), associando-o ao modelo de Thirlwall. A partir do estabelecimento de um modelo base, definimos alguns pressupostos teóricos que resultam em equações de fechamento do modelo: (1) elasticidades exógenas e oferta infinita de trabalho (caso Lewis); (2) inelasticidade na oferta de trabalho (caso Kaldor) e (3) elasticidades renda de importações e exportações dependem da taxa de emprego (caso Krugman-Palley). Para cada caso discutimos as implicações do modelo e sua intuição econômica.
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